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FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Ida
LOCATED
105 MI SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WINDS
115 MPH
PRESSURE
955 MB
MOVING
NW AT 15 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
Air force hurricane hunter aircraft finds Ida has strengthened into a major hurricane.
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of southeastern Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, to far southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of southeastern Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, to far southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
- Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
- Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 6 to 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
- Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
- Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 6 to 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1015 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...711 ft Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...69 ft Lake Pontchartrain...58 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...47 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion Bay...46 ft Lake Maurepas...46 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...24 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...24 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...13 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning by late morning with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana later this morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley by later today into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in lifethreatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will begin to affect the Ohio Valley by midweek, resulting in flash and riverine flooding impacts.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1015 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...711 ft Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...69 ft Lake Pontchartrain...58 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...47 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion Bay...46 ft Lake Maurepas...46 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...24 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...24 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...13 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning by late morning with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana later this morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley by later today into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in lifethreatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will begin to affect the Ohio Valley by midweek, resulting in flash and riverine flooding impacts.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Ida was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight and early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday afternoon. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will continue moving across the northcentral Gulf of Mexico this morning, and make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area this afternoon or evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is now a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue during the next 12 hours or so, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast this afternoon. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Ida was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight and early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday afternoon. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will continue moving across the northcentral Gulf of Mexico this morning, and make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area this afternoon or evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is now a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue during the next 12 hours or so, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast this afternoon. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Ida earlier this evening and found that the maximum winds were still around 90 kt. Although the peak winds appear to have leveled off for now, the minimum pressure has continued to fall and was down to 966 mb at the last pass through the center an hour or two ago. In fact, the pressure has been dropping by about 2 mb per hour based on the aircraft data. In addition, tail Doppler Radar data from the aircraft indicate that the vortex has become more symmetric and that the inner core has contracted from the mission earlier today. These are signals that Ida is poised to strengthen further, and based on recent satellite images it appears that strengthening is imminent. Flight-level and SFMR observations also indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded and there is some indication of a double-wind maximum. The tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 120 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds up to 35 n mi from the eye.

Ida continues to move steadily to the northwest at about 14 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast rationale. A subtropical ridge situated near the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward during the next day or two. This feature should continue to steer Ida northwestward toward the Louisiana coast. The latest runs of the numerical models bring the center of Ida to southeast or south-central Louisiana Sunday afternoon. Although landfall is not expected for about 18 hours, impacts will begin well before that time. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin overnight, therefore, all preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is just a little to the east of the previous one through landfall. After Ida moves inland, a turn to the north and then the northeast is expected as the storm moves in the flow on the northwest and north sides of the ridge.

Ida remains over waters with high oceanic heat content, and in an atmospheric environment of low wind shear and abundant moisture. These conditions, combined with the improved structure of the hurricane, should allow Ida to rapidly intensify until it makes landfall. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast holds steady and brings Ida to a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After the storm moves inland on Sunday, rapid weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, drier air and some increase in wind shear.

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through early next week.

Ida has undergone some dramatic inner-core structural changes since the previous advisory. The eye between 25,000-45,000 ft has become circular with a diameter of about 15 nmi now, and at least two eyewall mesocyclones have been noted rotating cyclonically around the eyewall in both radar and high-resolution 1-minute GOES-16 satellite imagery. The result has been rapid strengthening of at least 30 kt during the past 6 hours, along with a pressure drop of more than 15 mb during that same time, with a 6-mb decrease having occurred in the 1-hr period between about 0500-0600 UTC based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft eye dropsonde data. The aircraft also measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 133 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a peak SFMR surface wind speed of 116 kt. Furthermore, NWS Doppler radar velocity data from Slidell, Louisiana, has recently been measuring velocities of 120-130 kt between 25,000-30,000 ft, which is quite rare, and indicates that Ida is a vertically deep and intense hurricane. Ida was initialized with 115 kt at 0600 UTC, but the 0900 UTC advisory intensity has been increased to 120 kt based on the 133-kt flight-level wind and the improved structure in both radar data and satellite imagery since the 0609 UTC time of that aircraft observation.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic reasoning. The subtropical ridge oriented east-west along 30N-31N across the southeastern U.S. is forecast to remain intact through the forecast period with only minor shifts in the location and strength of the ridge. As a result, Ida should continue to move northwestward toward the southeastern Louisiana coast today, followed by a gradual turn toward the north tonight after landfall. On Monday, the hurricane is expected to move northeastward across the Tennessee Valley when Ida moves north of the ridge axis. Impacts and hazards will arrive well before the eye of the hurricane makes landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin later this morning. Therefore, all preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is basically just an update of the previous advisory track.

Ida will remain over waters with high oceanic heat content for another 6 hours or so. Thereafter, the heat content will drop sharply to less than half of the current value of more than 100 units. However, some additional strengthening is expected until landfall occurs. After Ida moves inland tonight, rapid weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, entrainment of drier air, and some increase in westerly vertical wind shear.

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through early next week.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Ida earlier this evening and found that the maximum winds were still around 90 kt. Although the peak winds appear to have leveled off for now, the minimum pressure has continued to fall and was down to 966 mb at the last pass through the center an hour or two ago. In fact, the pressure has been dropping by about 2 mb per hour based on the aircraft data. In addition, tail Doppler Radar data from the aircraft indicate that the vortex has become more symmetric and that the inner core has contracted from the mission earlier today. These are signals that Ida is poised to strengthen further, and based on recent satellite images it appears that strengthening is imminent. Flight-level and SFMR observations also indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded and there is some indication of a double-wind maximum. The tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 120 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds up to 35 n mi from the eye.

Ida continues to move steadily to the northwest at about 14 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast rationale. A subtropical ridge situated near the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward during the next day or two. This feature should continue to steer Ida northwestward toward the Louisiana coast. The latest runs of the numerical models bring the center of Ida to southeast or south-central Louisiana Sunday afternoon. Although landfall is not expected for about 18 hours, impacts will begin well before that time. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin overnight, therefore, all preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is just a little to the east of the previous one through landfall. After Ida moves inland, a turn to the north and then the northeast is expected as the storm moves in the flow on the northwest and north sides of the ridge.

Ida remains over waters with high oceanic heat content, and in an atmospheric environment of low wind shear and abundant moisture. These conditions, combined with the improved structure of the hurricane, should allow Ida to rapidly intensify until it makes landfall. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast holds steady and brings Ida to a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After the storm moves inland on Sunday, rapid weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, drier air and some increase in wind shear.

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through early next week.

Ida has undergone some dramatic inner-core structural changes since the previous advisory. The eye between 25,000-45,000 ft has become circular with a diameter of about 15 nmi now, and at least two eyewall mesocyclones have been noted rotating cyclonically around the eyewall in both radar and high-resolution 1-minute GOES-16 satellite imagery. The result has been rapid strengthening of at least 30 kt during the past 6 hours, along with a pressure drop of more than 15 mb during that same time, with a 6-mb decrease having occurred in the 1-hr period between about 0500-0600 UTC based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft eye dropsonde data. The aircraft also measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 133 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a peak SFMR surface wind speed of 116 kt. Furthermore, NWS Doppler radar velocity data from Slidell, Louisiana, has recently been measuring velocities of 120-130 kt between 25,000-30,000 ft, which is quite rare, and indicates that Ida is a vertically deep and intense hurricane. Ida was initialized with 115 kt at 0600 UTC, but the 0900 UTC advisory intensity has been increased to 120 kt based on the 133-kt flight-level wind and the improved structure in both radar data and satellite imagery since the 0609 UTC time of that aircraft observation.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic reasoning. The subtropical ridge oriented east-west along 30N-31N across the southeastern U.S. is forecast to remain intact through the forecast period with only minor shifts in the location and strength of the ridge. As a result, Ida should continue to move northwestward toward the southeastern Louisiana coast today, followed by a gradual turn toward the north tonight after landfall. On Monday, the hurricane is expected to move northeastward across the Tennessee Valley when Ida moves north of the ridge axis. Impacts and hazards will arrive well before the eye of the hurricane makes landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin later this morning. Therefore, all preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is basically just an update of the previous advisory track.

Ida will remain over waters with high oceanic heat content for another 6 hours or so. Thereafter, the heat content will drop sharply to less than half of the current value of more than 100 units. However, some additional strengthening is expected until landfall occurs. After Ida moves inland tonight, rapid weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, entrainment of drier air, and some increase in westerly vertical wind shear.

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through early next week.