FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Rose
LOCATED
550 MI W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1005 MB
MOVING
NW AT 15 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021
Rose continues moving northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic with no change in strength.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 32.6 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening will be possible today. By Tuesday, however, upper level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 32.6 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening will be possible today. By Tuesday, however, upper level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Rose remains a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the convective cloud mass based on an earlier 0359Z AMSR2 microwave overpass. These same data also revealed that a well-defined mid-level circulation center was located about 80-90 nmi west of the low-level center, an indication of the magnitude and effect of the mid-level shear impinging on the cyclone. The intensity of 35 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 from both TAFB and SAB. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are higher at 45-55 kt, which are considered to be unrepresentative due to the severe westward tilt of Rose's vortex column.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 315/13 kt. Rose is expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. By day 4 and beyond, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this track scenario through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly thereafter owing to whether Rose weakens to shallow system or remains a little stringer and deeper. The weaker solutions go more toward the northwest and the stronger solutions take Rose northeastward. The NHC forecast track on days 4 and 5 is a blend of these two extremes.

Rose only has about 24 hours over warm waters and in a weak vertical wind shear regime that will allow for some addition strengthening to occur. On days 2-5, however, increasing westerly shear is expected to induce some gradual weakening. Rose is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by 96 hours, although some of the models suggest that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and that Rose could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

Rose remains a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the convective cloud mass based on an earlier 0359Z AMSR2 microwave overpass. These same data also revealed that a well-defined mid-level circulation center was located about 80-90 nmi west of the low-level center, an indication of the magnitude and effect of the mid-level shear impinging on the cyclone. The intensity of 35 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 from both TAFB and SAB. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are higher at 45-55 kt, which are considered to be unrepresentative due to the severe westward tilt of Rose's vortex column.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 315/13 kt. Rose is expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. By day 4 and beyond, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this track scenario through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly thereafter owing to whether Rose weakens to shallow system or remains a little stringer and deeper. The weaker solutions go more toward the northwest and the stronger solutions take Rose northeastward. The NHC forecast track on days 4 and 5 is a blend of these two extremes.

Rose only has about 24 hours over warm waters and in a weak vertical wind shear regime that will allow for some addition strengthening to occur. On days 2-5, however, increasing westerly shear is expected to induce some gradual weakening. Rose is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by 96 hours, although some of the models suggest that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and that Rose could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

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