FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Victor
LOCATED
555 MI SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1005 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 13 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 200 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021
Victor moving generally west-northwestward across the far eastern Atlantic.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None

None

At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 8.4 North, longitude 26.7 West. Victor is moving toward the west northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest late Friday or Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 8.4 North, longitude 26.7 West. Victor is moving toward the west northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest late Friday or Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Victor has changed little in organization since the last advisory, with a large circulation and a complex of convective bands mainly in the northern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at or near 35 kt, as do other objective intensity estimates. Thus, the initial intensity is still 35 kt, although the most recent ASCAT-A data suggests the possibility that this is a little generous.

The center has moved or re-formed a bit to the west during the past several hours, although the longer-term motion still seems to be to the west-northwest at 290/11 kt. Other than the more westerly initial position, there is little change to the forecast philosophy or the forecast track since the last advisory. Victor is forecast to move west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so as it is steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. By 48 h, the global models forecast the western periphery of the ridge to get eroded by to a mid- to upper-level low over the subtropical central Atlantic. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward at that time, followed by a northward turn by the end of the forecast period. There remains a fair amount of spread in the timing and location of the northward turn with the GFS and HWRF still on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF showing the slowest and westernmost solution. The new forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope and lies very close to the various consensus models.

For the next 36-48 h, Victor is expected to remain in an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. This should allow steady strengthening, and rapid strengthening cannot be ruled out if the storm develops a better defined inner core. Based on a steady strengthening scenario, the new intensity forecast is identical to the previous one, taking Victor to hurricane intensity in 36 h with a peak intensity of 70 kt in 48 h. After that time, the aforementioned upper-level low is expected to cause significant shear over Victor while the cyclone moves into a drier air mass. This combination should cause the cyclone to weaken, and it is possible Victor could weaken faster than currently forecast after 60 hours. The new official intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Victor is gradually getting better organized. AMSR2 microwave data from 0300 UTC showed that the low-level circulation has become more defined, with most convective banding features located west and southwest of the center. Victor's intensity is now estimated to be 40 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS around 40 kt.

Victor's vector is toward the west-northwest (290 degrees) at 11 kt, and this heading should continue for the next 36 hours while the storm is located to the south a deep-layer ridge located over the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic. In about 2 days, a mid- to upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Atlantic, causing Victor to curve around the western periphery of the ridge, which gets shunted eastward between the Azores and the Canary Islands. The track models are in generally good agreement on this scenario, and most of them are clustered tightly among each other. Two notable exceptions, which are discounted at this time, are the HWRF and ECMWF models. The HWRF, which is stronger than the other models, is way off to the east, while the ECMWF lies off to the south and west, a tendency that we've observed recently with other storms in the deep tropics. The NHC track forecast is not changed much from the previous iteration and lies close to the GFS, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCA solutions.

If the low-level circulation is in fact becoming better defined as shown by microwave imagery, Victor should be able to continue strengthening for the next couple of days in an environment of low vertical shear and over warm waters of roughly 28 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance during this period and continues to show Victor reaching hurricane strength in about 36 hours. Once the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low forms, strong southerly to southwesterly deep-layer shear is expected to develop over Victor and induce a weakening trend in about 3 days. The intensity forecast has been lowered a bit during the latter part of the forecast period given the trends in the intensity models, but it is not as low as the HCCA and IVCN aids. Interestingly, many of the global models suggest that the shear could be so strong that Victor might weaken to a depression or even degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.

Victor has changed little in organization since the last advisory, with a large circulation and a complex of convective bands mainly in the northern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at or near 35 kt, as do other objective intensity estimates. Thus, the initial intensity is still 35 kt, although the most recent ASCAT-A data suggests the possibility that this is a little generous.

The center has moved or re-formed a bit to the west during the past several hours, although the longer-term motion still seems to be to the west-northwest at 290/11 kt. Other than the more westerly initial position, there is little change to the forecast philosophy or the forecast track since the last advisory. Victor is forecast to move west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so as it is steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. By 48 h, the global models forecast the western periphery of the ridge to get eroded by to a mid- to upper-level low over the subtropical central Atlantic. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward at that time, followed by a northward turn by the end of the forecast period. There remains a fair amount of spread in the timing and location of the northward turn with the GFS and HWRF still on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF showing the slowest and westernmost solution. The new forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope and lies very close to the various consensus models.

For the next 36-48 h, Victor is expected to remain in an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. This should allow steady strengthening, and rapid strengthening cannot be ruled out if the storm develops a better defined inner core. Based on a steady strengthening scenario, the new intensity forecast is identical to the previous one, taking Victor to hurricane intensity in 36 h with a peak intensity of 70 kt in 48 h. After that time, the aforementioned upper-level low is expected to cause significant shear over Victor while the cyclone moves into a drier air mass. This combination should cause the cyclone to weaken, and it is possible Victor could weaken faster than currently forecast after 60 hours. The new official intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Victor is gradually getting better organized. AMSR2 microwave data from 0300 UTC showed that the low-level circulation has become more defined, with most convective banding features located west and southwest of the center. Victor's intensity is now estimated to be 40 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS around 40 kt.

Victor's vector is toward the west-northwest (290 degrees) at 11 kt, and this heading should continue for the next 36 hours while the storm is located to the south a deep-layer ridge located over the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic. In about 2 days, a mid- to upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Atlantic, causing Victor to curve around the western periphery of the ridge, which gets shunted eastward between the Azores and the Canary Islands. The track models are in generally good agreement on this scenario, and most of them are clustered tightly among each other. Two notable exceptions, which are discounted at this time, are the HWRF and ECMWF models. The HWRF, which is stronger than the other models, is way off to the east, while the ECMWF lies off to the south and west, a tendency that we've observed recently with other storms in the deep tropics. The NHC track forecast is not changed much from the previous iteration and lies close to the GFS, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCA solutions.

If the low-level circulation is in fact becoming better defined as shown by microwave imagery, Victor should be able to continue strengthening for the next couple of days in an environment of low vertical shear and over warm waters of roughly 28 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance during this period and continues to show Victor reaching hurricane strength in about 36 hours. Once the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low forms, strong southerly to southwesterly deep-layer shear is expected to develop over Victor and induce a weakening trend in about 3 days. The intensity forecast has been lowered a bit during the latter part of the forecast period given the trends in the intensity models, but it is not as low as the HCCA and IVCN aids. Interestingly, many of the global models suggest that the shear could be so strong that Victor might weaken to a depression or even degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.

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