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FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Wilfred
LOCATED
1200 MI W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1007 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 16 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020
WILFRED WILTING IN THE FACE OF HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None

None

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 42.0 West. Wilfred is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is anticipated. Wilfred is not expected to last more than another couple of days and could dissipate as soon as later today.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 42.0 West. Wilfred is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is anticipated. Wilfred is not expected to last more than another couple of days and could dissipate as soon as later today.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

It is unclear if Wilfred still exists, and if so, exactly where it is located. Although there is clear evidence of a broad elongated circulation, the formerly small center of Wilfred is either obscured by higher clouds or has dissipated. AMSR-2 microwave imagery at 0431 UTC showed only evidence of a northwest-southeast oriented trough with one or more embedded mesoscale lows. Visible imagery and the next round of ASCAT passes will hopefully provide more information about Wilfred's status later this morning. The intensity remains 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last night, but more recent Dvorak estimates are lower.

Due to the uncertainty associated with Wilfred's status and location, the motion estimate is a very uncertain 295/15 kt. In general, Wilfred or its eventual remnants should continue on a west-northwestward heading today, and then could turn westward by early Monday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance suite.

Virtually no change has been made to the official intensity forecast. Wilfred will likely gradually weaken until it dissipates due to a combination of increasing wind shear and a dry environment. The exact point at which Wilfred will become a trough varies from model to model, but confidence is fairly high that Wilfred won't last much longer than another day or two. The NHC forecast carries Wilfred for 48 h based on persistence from the previous advisory, but if recent trends hold, it could dissipate as soon as later today.

It is unclear if Wilfred still exists, and if so, exactly where it is located. Although there is clear evidence of a broad elongated circulation, the formerly small center of Wilfred is either obscured by higher clouds or has dissipated. AMSR-2 microwave imagery at 0431 UTC showed only evidence of a northwest-southeast oriented trough with one or more embedded mesoscale lows. Visible imagery and the next round of ASCAT passes will hopefully provide more information about Wilfred's status later this morning. The intensity remains 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last night, but more recent Dvorak estimates are lower.

Due to the uncertainty associated with Wilfred's status and location, the motion estimate is a very uncertain 295/15 kt. In general, Wilfred or its eventual remnants should continue on a west-northwestward heading today, and then could turn westward by early Monday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance suite.

Virtually no change has been made to the official intensity forecast. Wilfred will likely gradually weaken until it dissipates due to a combination of increasing wind shear and a dry environment. The exact point at which Wilfred will become a trough varies from model to model, but confidence is fairly high that Wilfred won't last much longer than another day or two. The NHC forecast carries Wilfred for 48 h based on persistence from the previous advisory, but if recent trends hold, it could dissipate as soon as later today.

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