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Dorian Now Expected to Become a Hurricane Prior to Landfall in Florida

The National Hurricane Center now forecasting Tropical Storm Dorian to become a hurricane prior to landfall in Florida Sunday.

In their 11 pm update Tuesday, forecasters expressed a notable increase in confidence that Dorian would intensify over the warm Atlantic waters east of the Bahamas Friday, before turning west toward the peninsula over the weekend. This was despite the possibility that Tropical Storm Dorian weakens some Wednesday and Thursday from land interactions with the island of Puerto Rico.

The latest official advisory from the National Hurricane Center is summarized in the section below.

Although confidence has grown on a track toward Florida, Hurricane Specialist Richard Pasch said uncertainty with regards to the intensity forecast remains “higher than usual”.

“[It’s] problematic because of a significant spread in the model guidance and some run-to-run inconsistencies,” Pasch wrote in his Tuesday evening forecast discussion.

The forecast data Richard speaks of has been trending in the direction toward a stronger storm than the Hurricane Center is willing to explicitly show at this time, which he also noted. This is likely due to the uncertainties that remain while the cyclone is moving through the northeast Caribbean.

Suggested Actions

Information in this section includes some opinion, with the intent of helping you prepare for a possible emergency.

As of Wednesday morning, potential landfall from Tropical Storm (or Hurricane) Dorian is still more than 100 hours away. There is never a bad time to prepare. However, some Floridians now might have a preparation deadline as it relates to this storm.

The most important thing you can do now is to stay informed and finish your hurricane plan. If you feel overwhelmed, or don't know where to start, we've created a page of helpful tips to get you started.

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Sources include nearest National Weather Service office, National Hurricane Center, and the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (@FloridaStorms).
Sources include nearby emergency management agencies, FEMA, and your local NPR affiliate. 
Sources include the Florida Department of Transportation, Florida Highway Patrol and other nearby traffic information.

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