Hurricane Hunters flew into Invest 91 on Sunday afternoon, but came back with little evidence to suggest a tropical depression or storm had formed. Winds were gusting to gale force in a large area on the disturbance’s east side, but organized thunderstorm activity and a closed area of low pressure were both lacking. Nonetheless, the National Hurricane Center says Invest 91 as a “high chance” of becoming a tropical depression or storm by Monday or Tuesday as it continues to move northwest toward the coast of Texas. A large and unusually strong ridge of high pressure over the Southeast US will keep this potential development from having any influence on the weather in Florida whatsoever. Confidence is high that the storm will be pulled northwestward, and eventually northward, by a developing trough of low pressure over the Central U.S. by midweek. Heavy rain and possible inland flooding will likely be the greatest concern, as the forecast track takes the associated tropical moisture from the system over much of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas where flooding has been an ongoing problem for many weeks already this spring. The ridge of high pressure over the Southeast is forecast to weaken some by week’s end, thereby allowing typical afternoon showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous across the State of Florida. However, at this time, influences from this development in the tropics are not expected.
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