DEPRESSION STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, North Florida, and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas.
2. A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of theNorth Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical StormWarning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible innortheastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a TropicalStorm Watch is in effect.
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches across the eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southern Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina into eastern North Carolina through Monday morning. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor river flooding are possible across these areas. Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...13 ft Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...12 ft Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area late tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 84.2 West. The depression is moving toward the eastnortheast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An eastnortheastward to northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to become a tropical storm again late tonight or early Monday over eastern North Carolina. Further strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to become a posttropical cyclone by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show that the center of Claudette is moving across central Georgia this morning. Although the deep convection near the center has waned overnight, loose convective bands are evident over portions of North and South Carolina, and to the southeast of the center across southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. There have been a few wind reports of 20-23 kt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the past couple of hours, with the higher reports occurring at some elevated towers. The initial wind speed is maintained at 25 kt, but the strongest winds are well removed from the center and occurring mainly over water. Claudette is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 070/15 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Claudette should continue to accelerate east-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough moving into the central United States. The center of the cyclone should be near the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, and then pass well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday afternoon and Monday night. The track guidance remains in very good agreement and the updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous official foreast. As the large circulation of Claudette moves off of the southeastern United States coast later today and tonight, winds will increase along and offshore of the coast, and the system is expected to regain tropical-storm status by Monday morning. Additional re-strengthening is foreast on Monday and Monday night while the cyclone moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. After that time, the system is expected to quickly transition to an extratropical cyclone, and the global models show the post-tropical cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various intensity aids and the modest deepening indicated by the global models.
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