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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian

UPDATED
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 , 2019
LOCATION
375
WINDS
60 MPH
PRESSURE
980 MB
MOVING
ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

POST-TROPICAL DORIAN MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE LABRADOR SEA AND BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY,

KEY MESSAGES
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

1. Dorian will continue to cause some impacts across portions Atlantic Canada into early Monday morning. Storm surge impacts will gradually subside over portions of the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and western Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will continue over portions of southeastern Newfoundland into early Monday but should end by late Monday morning. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Hurricane conditions are possible in St. Lucia, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Rainfall of 3 to 8 inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

3. Watches will likely be issued for portions of Hispaniola tonight or Tuesday, as the threat of wind and rain impacts continues to increase.

4. While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.


WHAT'S NEW:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has discontinued all tropical cyclone warnings for Atlantic Canada.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


WIND: [TOP] Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will continue across portions of southeastern Newfoundland until early Monday and then diminish by late Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Storm surge along the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and the West Coast of Newfoundland will continue to subside through Monday morning.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of less than 1 inch across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and Labrador.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next couple of days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian was located near latitude 52.1 North, longitude 53.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone Dorian will continue to move away from Atlantic Canada through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger low pressure system on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is now located northeast of Newfoundland over the Labrador Sea where sea-surface temperatures are less than 10 deg C. No significant convection exists within 120 nmi of the center and, thus, Dorian has become fully extratropical. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system.

The post-tropical cyclone is now moving east-northeastward or 060/21 kt. This general motion should continue through Tuesday or until the cyclone is absorbed by a larger extratropical low.

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the intensity and wind radii forecasts, and initial 12-ft seas radii. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken through Tuesday or until it is absorbed by a larger low.

Dorian's convective pattern has waxed and waned this afternoon due to intrusions of dry mid-level air while the upper-level outflow pattern has continued to expand and become more symmetrical. Although the inner-core convection has decreased recently, a recent burst of strong convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has redeveloped just north of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains at 50 kt based on a an average of satellite intensity estimates ranging from 45 kt to 61 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS SATCON and ADT. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Dorian by 0000 UTC this evening, and will provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance remains in very agreement that Dorian will move west-northwestward across the central Lesser Antilles tonight and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday as the cyclone moves around the edge of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located well to the north. On Wednesday, Dorian should turn northwestward into a small weakness in the ridge, allowing the tropical cyclone to pass near or between western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. By late Thursday and Friday, the ridge is forecast to build back in as an upper-level trough lifts out to the north, causing Dorian to turn back toward the west-northwest in the vicinity of the central Bahamas. The new official forecast track is just an extension of the previous one since the latest model guidance, especially the consensus models, are tightly packed around the previous track forecast.

The intensity forecast remains something of an enigma. The majority of the environmental conditions support at least steady strengthening, with the main hindrance being the very dry mid-level air surrounding the cyclone and occasionally being entrained into Dorian's inner-core region. The small but robust circulation should continue mix out the brief dry air intrusions, but when an eyewall will form is still uncertain. Given that Dorian will be moving into the convective maximum period later tonight, the intensity forecast still calls for Dorian be near hurricane strength when it passes through the Windward Islands. Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result in some weakening in 72-96 hours, followed by restrengthening on days 4 and 5 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the Bahamas in low shear conditions. Most of the global models along with the statistical- dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous one at 96 and 120 hours. However, confidence in the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola.

View storm archives
      Hurricane Dorian Special Advisory 58
      SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 57
      TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA, HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 56
      DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 55
      DORIAN HEADING FOR NOVA SCOTIA IN A HURRY, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 54
      DORIAN MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 52...Corrected
      Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Corrected direction to Cape Lookout EYE OF DORIAN PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT, HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 52
      EYE OF DORIAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT, HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 48...Corrected
      Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Corrected rainfall statement DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 48
      DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 47
      LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 46
      AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT DORIAN HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE, EYE NOW EAST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 45
      HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST, DORIAN STILL MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 40
      DORIAN STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING, CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 40
      DORIAN STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING, CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 34
      EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN CRAWLING OVER THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS, DORIAN'S FURY NOW AIMING TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 33
      DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS,
      Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory 32A
      EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 32
      EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LATER TODAY, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGEHURRICANE-FORCE WINDSAND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED,
      Hurricane Dorian Advisory 26
      EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS,
      Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory 25A
      EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS DORIAN IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE,
      Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 10
      TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
      Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 9
      HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY
LOCAL ALERTS
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TRAFFIC
Sources include nearest National Weather Service office, National Hurricane Center, and the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (@FloridaStorms).
Sources include nearby emergency management agencies, FEMA, and your local NPR affiliate. 
Sources include the Florida Department of Transportation, Florida Highway Patrol and other nearby traffic information.

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