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Tropical Depression Fred

400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021
35 MPH
1004 MB

Fred weakens to a depression over extreme southeastern Alabama.


1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today

Portions of Georgia and the Southern Appalachians... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Thursday

Central Appalachians including portions of the Mid Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment today.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at

WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:


TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening across parts of Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southwestern Virginia.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today, across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Fred is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight and merge with a frontal system on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Fred has moved farther inland and is now located near the border of southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama. Between 0400-0600 UTC, Doppler radar data from Tallahassee, Florida, still showed 68-70 kt velocities between 9,000-10,000 ft associated with a solid band of convection in the northeastern quadrant. Using 50 percent of those values supported keeping Fred as a 35-kt tropical storm at 0600 UTC. This intensity was also supported by 30-kt winds on the west side of the low-level circulation noted in surface observations. Since that time, however, the solid band of convection has become fragmented and the thunderstorm activity has broken up into more discrete cells. Satellite and radar imagery also indicate that the mid- and upper-level circulations have decoupled and sheared out to the north of the low-level circulation. As a result, Fred has been downgraded to a tropical depression at the 0900 UTC advisory time. Weakening will continue through today as Fred moves farther inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians, with Fred likely becoming a remnant low later tonight before merging with a frontal system over the northern Appalachians on Wednesday.

Fred has continued to move north-northeastward, or 015/12 kt. For the remainder of today, Fred should maintain a motion toward the north-northeast or northeast accompanied by a gradual increase forward speed owing to a very stable steering pattern between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the west. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies near the middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite.

Although Fred is weakening, the system is still expected to bring flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Fred. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM ED, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

View storm archives
      Tropical Storm Fred Advisory 28A
      Dangerous storm surge and flooding rains over portions of the Florida Panhandle and big bend region as Fred approaches the coast.
Sources include nearest National Weather Service office, National Hurricane Center, and the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (@FloridaStorms).
Sources include nearby emergency management agencies, FEMA, and your local NPR affiliate. 
Sources include the Florida Department of Transportation, Florida Highway Patrol and other nearby traffic information.

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